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The Calm Before the Storm

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

HR executives will become as important as CFOs, according to the recently published McKinsey study, The War for Talent.

Recruiters are already as important as sales executives. And the sooner corporations catch on to this phenomenon, the sooner they will improve their competitive positions, their revenues, bottom lines and stock valuations.

2001 marked the first year in a decade that corporations and employers enjoyed a robust talent pool. This will not last. Although the soft economy has created a self-imposed truce in the war for candidates, employers must take note: critical skill and educated high performing candidate supply lines are dwindling.

Total population unemployment rates have hovered between 3.5 and 6 percent since 1996. Management/Professional*(1)(MRI)) unemployment is less than half of that. Demographic pressures*(2)(Dent) are about to strike a mighty blow to corporate America. During this decade, the overall labor force will grow, but the Management/Professional category will contract. The reasons? Universities are not graduating a significant supply, Baby Boomers*(3)(Dent) are retiring, and the U.S. is increasingly shifting from an industrial to an information and service-based economy. All will create a tremendous talent short fall. The resulting battles for talent will be bloody.

Employers not typically armed to attract the best talent include low-performing Fortune 2000 companies, emerging companies, smaller traditional firms, government, education and healthcare. Their ability to retain top performing talent will be trumped by those who employ next generation recruiting strategies*(4)(War for Talent/ Watson, Wyatt). The consensus among economists is that by the end of 2002, U.S. GDP will reach growth rates achieved back in the heady days of 2000. (5) (Greenspan, Business Week). By 2003, the economy will be roaring back.

Consequently, recruiting industry career options will explode. Third-party firms will expand to meet the needs of their corporate, institution and government clients. Corporate/HR internal recruiting teams and firms must recruit to keep costs in check, enhance quality control and improve time to hire. Recruiting industry service providers competing for market share must hire employees who are well versed in recruiting processes and issues. Consulting firms, promising to fix employer brands, processes, and to build and train internal recruiters, need an army of soldiers. Before you realize the rain has begun, you'll be smack dab in the midst of a full-fledged hurricane!